Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today. Don't Wait, Make Your Plan.

NOAA's below-normal outlook doesn't change the readiness math

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today. Don't Wait, Make Your Plan.

June 1 is here, which means the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is officially open. It runs through November 30, and even a "quiet" season can kill people and overwhelm SAR systems.

NOAA is calling for a below-normal season this year, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes, and 1 to 3 reaching major status (Category 3 or higher, winds above 111 mph). There's a 55% chance the season stays below normal, but that still leaves real odds of a major landfall. The historical average sits at 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes per season, so even the low end of NOAA's forecast isn't trivial.

For SAR coordinators, below-normal doesn't mean off the hook. Coastal and swift-water rescue teams should have already reviewed their surge plans, equipment caches, and mutual aid agreements. If that hasn't happened, this week is the time. Incident Command structures for multi-jurisdictional hurricane response don't come together cleanly under pressure if they haven't been rehearsed beforehand.

A few things worth confirming before the first named storm forms: Are your 406 MHz EPIRBs and PLBs registered and within service life? Are helicopter hoist crews current on over-water rescue currency? Do your marine SAR partners know your activation thresholds?

"Below normal" is a forecast, not a guarantee. One landfalling major hurricane is enough to define a season for the communities and responders in its path.

Stay ready.


References

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2026, May 21). NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane seasonhttps://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season

National Hurricane Center. (2026). 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Wikipedia Contributors. (2026). Atlantic hurricane season. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season